Expert: China wants less corruption in Belt and Road projects

The director of the Centre for Political Research Aydar Amrebayev talks to Exclsuive.kz editor Karlygash Yezhenova about the future of China’s Belt and Road initiative and ‘the games’ that China and Kazakhstan are playing with Russia.

Q — What will the next decade of Belt and Road be like?

A — I would say that the period of ‘diplomatic adjustment’ is over, and the main question on the agenda is the quality of the project.

China has made a great deal of effort to attract many countries to the initiative – it is said that about 140 countries are involved in it in one way or another at the moment. With some countries China used its political influence, others were ‘bought’ with generous investment and loans, still others joined because of geopolitical and geoeconomic considerations.

Whereas at the beginning China did not have an overall conceptual vision of the project – it simply operated depending on conditions on the ground – now China understands what it is dealing with in each country.

As for the next decade, I think it will be different in the sense that China will focus on creation of small and medium-sized enterprises, with the involvement of private business, particularly in the processing industry.

Another new approach, according to Xi [Jinping] is working only on ‘honest projects’ with minimal corruption and based only on economic expediency. It is no secret that in the first decade there were political projects, just to allow China to ‘mark territory”.

I think now they want to be more pragmatic, and I think it is a good thing for our, unfortunately, quite corrupt economy and politics.

Maybe the Chinese culture of accountability, strict hierarchy, and frugality will have a good effect on us. We are under the influence of Russia, the West and China. But Chinese influence is increasing.

Q — Has the initiative been beneficial for Kazakhstan so far?

A — Kazakhstan has got quite actively involved with Belt and Road, compared to our neighbours. Uzbekistan joined it quite late. Kyrgyzstan has certain issues because it has borrowed too much and is among the countries finding themselves in a debt trap.

Kazakhstan is in a more favourable situation, judging by the official statistics.

We have joined more viable projects, like construction and modernisation of industrial enterprises, for example the project to launch 52 new plants in the country, 20-30 percent of which are close to completion. There are some success stories, so Kazakhstan already has something to show.  

Our president was one of the key guests at the Belt and Road forum [in Beijing in October] and my Chinese colleagues say that Kazakhstan is seen as a kind of a role model of active participation in the project. In this sense, we are ahead of Russia.

Q — Soon after the Belt and Road forum European countries held their own meeting, around their Global Gateway initiative.

A — There are many similar initiatives – American, Indian, Japanese. It shows how developed economies are currently trying to reassert their influence and looking for solutions so they can continue to steer global development.

Clearly, in the post-American world we are going to see the emergence of new centres of global development. The current geopolitical processes are bringing to an end the old world order and creating a new system of checks and balances, and it is affecting everyone.

Q — How would you assess the state of Chinese-Russian relations?

A — I do not think that Russia is at the moment seen in China as a partner able to implement any integration projects because it is facing international isolation. Russian President Putin attended the forum in Beijing, but his presence was a mere formality.

China is taking a very reserved position with Russia. It understands that from the point of view of economic pragmatism Russia cannot be fully involved in Belt and Road.

However, today Russia is in open confrontation with the USA, and China is using Putin’s belligerence in international relations to its own advantage.

China cares only about its own interests. It is not seeking a military, political or economic alliance. China is looking for something else.

Kazakhstan too understands that it is not a good idea to make any joint long-term plans with Russia. It is playing a difficult diplomatic game.

The Kazakh president is dancing a tango with Russia – let’s recall his remarks at the St Petersburg Economic Forum last year [when he said Kazakhstan wouldn’t recognise Ukraine’s pro-Russian separatist regions].

Politics is the art of finding and using opportunities. There is a very narrow window of opportunities when it comes to Russia.

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