Dushanbe meeting: has Central Asia been left alone to deal with Afghan issue?

The conference on Afghanistan held this week in Dushanbe looked like an attempt to remind the world about an embarrassing issue that everyone prefers to forget.

Since the United States’ humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan and the return to power of the Taliban movement in 2021, Afghanistan has been largely left to its own devices.  

Two years on, the Afghan issue is even less of a priority, with the West and regional powers being preoccupied with the conflicts around Ukraine and Palestine, and other escalating geopolitical standoffs.

As neighbours the Central Asian nations could never afford to turn away from Afghanistan’s problem.

Even less so now that the two major powers, the US and Russia, which in the past few decades ‘controlled’ Afghan security are ‘in retreat’.

US has basically washed its hands after two decades of ‘fighting international terrorism’ in Afghanistan.

Russia, which after the Soviet collapse was in the first place only interested in Afghanistan as a way of keeping Central Asia in its fold, is weakened by its war in Ukraine and can hardly be seen as ‘a security guarantor’ against threats coming from Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, the experts say that despite the promises, the Taliban continues to allow around 20 different terrorist organisations, such as Al Qaida, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Ansarullah, to maintain bases in Afghanistan.

The Afghan opposition forces are seen as too fragmented and disunited to be able to challenge Taliban power.

The Central Asian governments have no choice but to try to navigate the problem on their own.

Peace and stability in Afghanistan are crucial conditions for developing new potentially very profitable trade and energy export routes out and across Central Asia, and getting alternative access to the sea.

The Dushanbe conference on 27-28 November was part of Heart Security Dialogue, an annual event launched by the UK-based Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) in 2012. The Dushanbe round was entitled «Reimagining Afghanistan: Ways Forward».

It was attended by more than 100 officials, former Afghan officials — including former Herat governor Mohammad Ismail Khan and former national security chief Rahmatullah Nabil — and international experts. The Taliban government was invited but did not send anyone.

The AISS said ahead of the conference that the situation in Afghanistan “continues to deteriorate steadily”, both economically and in terms of individual freedoms.

“Afghanistan has, over the past two years, transformed into an information void, with limited news coming out about new developments and events within the country,” the Institute said in a statement.

It said attempts by some countries, like Pakistan or Qatar, to engage with the Taliban on any issues have failed.

Meanwhile, in the past two years there has been a resurgence of international terrorism in the region, with Afghanistan “once again” becoming “a safe haven for international terrorists and jihadists”, the statement said.

It added that the Central Asian countries are “deeply concerned about the presence of Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan, viewing it as a significant threat to their national security.”

The former Herat governor Ismail Khan said at the conference that the situation in Afghanistan represented danger to the Central Asian region.

“I hope the region understands the reality of the danger and shows vigilance. If not, Afghanistan will not be the only one to suffer. Central Asia will suffer more,” he was quoted as saying by the private Tajik Asia Plus news agency.

The former Afghan security chief Nabil told the conference that the Taliban have increased their military and financial resources over the past two years.

He also noted that the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan), which operates in the tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border, has stepped up its activities too. The TTP represents a growing security challenge to the Pakistani government.

“I think the Taliban have achieved their strategic goals,” Nabil said.

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