Is Central Asia a future hotspot of global green transition rivalry?

As pressure to act on climate change grows, the big economies are scrambling to secure supplies of materials needed for the generation of clean energy. Central Asia has vast reserves of such critical materials.

The experts say that as the global green transition race escalates, Central Asia might turn into a new hotspot of geopolitical rivalry. 

China has already laid some ground to ensure its access to such reserves in the region. The EU and the US are starting to show an interest.

Sophia Kalantzakos, a Professor in Environmental Studies and Public Policy, has said that the transition to clean energy “is increasingly becoming a source of major hyper-competition” — “the demand for critical materials is going to skyrocket”.

“Gradually, the attention is shifting to Central Asia,” Kalantzakos said at an online discussion organised by The Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies (Harvard University) on 12 October.

Roman Vakulchuk, Head of the Climate and Energy Research Group at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), said that out of the 29 minerals that are seen as critical to the transition to clean energy (copper, iron, manganese, and others), 22 are present in Central Asia in mineable quantities – much of it in Kazakhstan.

The region has 38.6 percent of the world’s known reserves of manganese ore, 30 percent of chromium, 20 percent of lead, 12.6 percent of zinc, and 8.7 of titanium, he said.

This effectively makes the region “a one-stop shop” for critical materials, increasing its attractiveness for investors, Vakulchuk said. 

Other pluses are that the region has a developed mining infrastructure, albeit ageing, experience in geological exploration, and is close to China – a key processing base.

However, potential investors will have to consider certain challenges, like political instability, export regulations, resource nationalism and others, Vakulchuk noted.

Another issue is that mining is technologically challenging and environmentally unfriendly.

The experts said China had already established a notable presence in Central Asia’s mining sector. It is dominating the extraction of critical materials in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and it is a major buyer of them from Kazakhstan.

Vakulchuk said China’s Belt and Road initiative, with its main focus on infrastructure projects, could have been designed, in part, with an eye on facilitating exports of critical material from Central Asia.  

Now the EU and the USA appear to be stepping into the game. In 2022, the EU signed an agreement with Kazakhstan on raw materials, batteries, and renewable hydrogen.

In September, following US President Joe Biden’s meeting with the five Central Asian leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, the White House published a document on launching a C5+1 dialogue on critical minerals.

The big question is how the Central Asian nations will manage their “riches”. And how will they navigate potential geopolitical tensions around their critical materials’ reserves?

It could be “an opportunity to further pursue a strategic agenda that gives the countries more options and more flexibility”, Kalantzakos, who is based at New York University, Abu Dhabi, the UAE, said.

It could also be a chance to foster regional cooperation and integration, she added.

Kalantzakos also pointed out that the US-Chinese race for global economic dominance (with the current focal points being digitisation and green energy technologies) is damaging to global efforts to tackle climate change.

Meanwhile, the EU is taking climate change seriously, introducing new strict regulations, and championing multilateral cooperation — “not targeting China the way the US is doing”.

Given that, she said, the EU could be a better partner for Central Asia for making the most of its potential to contribute to a green transition.

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