President of Azerbaijan – Ilham Aliyev

Ilham Aliyev was born on December 24, 1961 in Azerbaijan capital in the family of deputy head of Baku KGB department – Geydar Aliyev, who later became first secretary of Azerbaijan Republic’s Communist Party’s Central Committee (CC). He graduated from school #6 located in Baku city’s Sabil region. According to his classmates and teachers Aliyev Junior was middling in his studies and never expressed an enthusiasm towards education. After high school he went to International Relations Moscow State University (IRMSU), after graduating it continued his education as Master’s. Completing Master’s degree stayed in IRMSU for teaching. In dashing 1990s after his father left CC CPSU political bureau Ilham was involved in private business leading several manufacturing-commercial enterprises (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98).
Our hero returned back to motherland only when his father became the president of the Republic that is when he had his fantastic start on climbing carrier Olympic top. In 1994 he becomes vice-president and later first vice-president of Azerbaijan Republic’s State Oil Company (does not it remind something?). He was actively participating in realization of “Geydar Aliyev’s oil strategy”. In 1995 and 2000 was twice elected to Azerbaijan Republic Parliament, it was well understood – Ilham Aliyev was heavily prepared to be the successor (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98).
In the second part of 1990s Ilham Aliyev becomes legendary figure. That is when with the help of scandalous media and Azerbaijan opposition he received playboy and gambler reputation. But in comparison to the fact that he received “failing grade” from Leonid Zamyatin, this legend has never been proved to be true. In any case there are stories regarding that father had to pay large sums of money lost by Ilham in different European and Turkey casinos. One of the most scandalous stories is related to famous Turkish businessmen, owner of several casinos – Omar Lyutfi Topal. According to Hurriyet newspaper in 1996 he lost large sum of money in casino which belongs to Topal and that is why Azerbaijan government had to transfer grand-hotel “Europe” in Baku to Topal as the payment of debt (http://www.compromat.ru/main/aliev/io.htm).
However already at that time mass media often underlined that compared to “girls’” Asian kingdom, they already have heir Prince in Caucasian country – Ilham Aliyev. Of course Aliyev Senior is trying to maximally easy the process of power transformation. Basically citizens of the Republic have been morally prepared to see Ilham as their next President long ago. To the position of vice president of State Oil Company (this is main wealth of the country) and deputy of the parliament he added position of deputy chair of ruling party, continuous leader of which is of course Aliyev Senior (http://www.compromat.ru/main/aliev/ilham.htm).
But here is where the major problem stands – he (Ilham Aliyev, editor’s note) has always been phlegmatic and was never willing to be politically active. This is seen on the every move that he make: according to Azerbaijan opposition media he wakes up very late, and comes to the office not earlier than midday. In the past Geydar Aliyev had to phone his son and make him to go to work and even during working hours he finds time to play favorite computer games. After finishing work (usually at 5 p.m.) he spends his time with friends that he knows for many years, many of which still manage their family business (N. Aliyev, J, Askerov, K. Geydarov, etc). Surrounded by his closest friends in the evenings Ilham is having fun and enjoys all the life beauties, moreover it’s often the case that such evenings finish only in the early morning (http://www.novopol.ru/text2960.html).
First case scenario of “bloodless” takeover of Presidential position looked following way: Ilham Aliyev supposed to be elected as speaker of the parliament (it is easy to do since majority sits are held by ruling party and deputies would certainly vote for Ilham). According to Azerbaijan laws speaker of the parliament is second person in the country, who in case of force majeur, death or vote of disapproval to the President, speaker would fulfil his responsibilities. This way Aliyev Junior could have automatically received position of Aliyev Senior, however this plan failed. This is explained by that Ilham is not willing to gain all powers; even most decisive opposition leaders of Geydar tell that his son lacks father’s ambitions and pride. Moreover some sources tell that Ilham Geydarovich himself asked not to be nominated as speaker of the parliament; however this is all under official version.    
Observers tell that Aliyev son was not able to cope with the situation. He heroically traveled around the country, made his speeches, made complicated face and listened to well prepared “representatives of the public” in all these case he tried to copy father’s style. However he was far from charisma of Aliyev Senior, as far as destination to the moon. Sometimes it could be seen that election campaign was great burden for him (http://www.compromat.ru/main/aliev/ilham.htm).
Because of all this another way for accession of the Prince was chosen. In August 2003 President Geydar Aliyev (who suffered through several heart operations by that time, editor’s note) offered his son as the candidate for prime-minister’s position, this offer was supported by 101 parliament members. Ilham Aliyev told the journalists that he will continue economical and external policy path of the government, on October 15, 2003 he was elected as the President of Azerbaijan republic. It is believed that more than 76% of voters supported Ilham Aliyev; he took his position on October 31, 2003 (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%98).
He had the great chance for innovative jump, with the help of high oil prices and diversifying export routes new head of the country was able to collect and consolidated oil capitals in country’s budget, but this could be done by any leader of oil extracting countries. He was able to invest them into country’s development and ensure high economical growth rates (http://izvestia.com/azerbaijan/article3120872/). 
But on the end of 2004 in Azerbaijan started something that was expected and forecasted since the moment when Ilham Aliyev became the President by many local experts. Local ruling clans – Nakhichevanians and Armenians declared war to each other, moreover this was not done in shadows, away from others view, but it was done openly. Any minor fact is used by both sides in order to strengthen their positions, but of course it must be understood that fight between these two sides did not start today. Such offences by fighting camps of Nakhichevanians and Armenians took place at the time of Geydar Aliyev’s ruling as well. But Aliyev Senior, was having roots in Armenia, but was born in Nakhichevan, and that is why both sides considered him as their friend. Geydar Aliyev himself was able to stay above such clan conflicts and act as the judge if necessary. When Ilham Aliyev came into power many analytics in Baku considered that he will not be able to keep the balance between ruling clans – Nakhichevanians and Armenians. He definitely lacks father’s flexibility and as was underlined by one of the opposition member – chairman of Party of Azerbaijan national independence Etibar Mamedov, Ilham Aliyev is responsible for the open war among ministers. Localization of so called regional interests of ruling elites is moved to secondary positions long ago. Today we are discussing power and property redistribution and spheres of influence (http://www.ng.ru/courier/2004-12-20/12_aliev.html).
Analysts long have noted that spouse of listless Ilham (Mehriban editor’s note) is benefiting not only from her beauty, intellect, energy, erudition, taste, but also pronounced ambitious. After the election of Ilham as the President influence of his wife in public affairs is constantly growing and this in large part because of the peculiarities of her husband, whose father is often referred to him as «our disordered Ilham.» The current President of Azerbaijan so weighted down by official ceremonies, that he may cancel pre-scheduled meetings with foreign representatives and diplomats only on his own will. And it is a constant source of diplomatic conflict. A widely publicized incident was when the Switzerland ambassador waited designated reception a few hours. In the end, according to ironizing opposition publications, Ilham came out quite drunk and not only met the ambassador, but denied the meeting with phrase starting with f… word (http://www.novopol.ru/text2960.html).
It can be said that Ilham Aliyev apparently weighted down by his presidential functions, he apparently seeks to «rule» but not «govern». He considers responsibilities of the head of State to be too burdensome, he actually handed governing tools to the old apparatchik and experienced in the palace intrigues «power broker» – head of the presidential administration (and at the same time the leader of the most influential ruling clan of Nakhichevanians) Ramiz Mehtiev.
Given the passivity of Azerbaijan President R. Mehtiev concentrated in his hands virtually the entire executive branch and has become a key figure in the ruling elite. With his help Ilham Aliyev, apparently expects to remain in power and to get rid of internal opposition within the ruling elite without special effort on his part, including from the old «Geydar’s Guards”, who are known for their skepticism about the current president, who retains his playboy reputation (in the Azerbaijani version — play-Baia ‚). So far Aliyev is comfortable with the role of R. Mehtiev’s as the real manager of Azerbaijan: head of Presidential Administration not only relieves the President from burdensome of daily duties of government affairs, but defiantly does not interfere in the presidential life. Precautionary R. Mehtiev makes no attempt to change familiar and enjoyable for Ilham way of life (http://www.novopol.ru/text2960.html).
As it was expected current President Ilham Aliyev had convincing victory in the presidential election on 15 October 2008 in Azerbaijan. According to data released by CEC late at night on the same day, it became known that Ilham Aliev, who heads the party Yeni Azerbaijan (New Azerbaijan), received 89.04% of the votes. So the assumption that the elections for the current head of state will only puncture forces to improve the rate five years ago have been fully justified. In 2003, at his first presidential elections, Azerbaijan leader won only 76% of votes.
Particular feature of the current election campaign is that the elections would be held in any case, even with the very lowest turnout. This fact, as well as the obvious lack of competitors to acting president the country has become the basis for assumptions that the turnout at the polls would be much lower than ever (http://www.rian.ru/analytics/20081016/ 153296951.html).
It is important that in contrast to previous elections, Ilham Aliyev, also without alternative candidates, even though more intense and dramatic — the elections were truly his own. Last time everybody voted not for Ilham Aliyev, but for son of Geydar Aliyev. The late president — a classic Soviet and post-Soviet policy who gone through cheekiest schools, obstacles at the party leadership in Azerbaijan, and problems at Soviet Politburo and who managed to change the situation after retirement — did all that was possible in order to ensure that his son and no one else seemed to be the only possible successor of outgoing patriarch. But that is why the patriarch looked patriarch, and his son looked like a boy who can not cope with the leadership responsibilities.
Now, Ilham Aliyev is no longer a boy. Clearly, this is not Geydar — the current President of Azerbaijan lacks perfect strategic vision processes, which had his father, he can not always subtly combine clan interests with the public or make public interest proved clan so that nobody would notice existing conflicts. Ilham Aliyev is not a statesman and politician, which, incidentally, is not so scary especially in an era when public figures are scarce almost everywhere. But he is much more a businessman and diplomat than chekist and the Soviet leader. Times do change, the Azerbaijani President, is no longer working with Boris Yeltsin and Eduard Shevardnadze, not with Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, but he works with Dmitry Medvedev and Mikhail Saakashvili, with George Bush and Gordon Brown working with them he does not need the flexibility and artifice, ability to be impress within limited period of time, in a word — all to please and nothing to lose. Geydar was old strategist – best among strategists. Young Ilham is tactic among tactics. However, Geydar Aliyev was far better strategist than of his contemporaries, and Ilham — much better tactician than many of his colleagues. It is not even that Geydar Aliyev has built the «family republic, in which no one but his son could replace him. And that he anticipated the restructuring and not only post-Soviet, but also of world politics and suggested that Azerbaijan President, precisely appropriate to the type of politicians who now run the world — only more confident in their right to power and has therefore able to build their tactical action like this is the strategy (http://www.centrasia.ru/newsA.php?st=1224176040).
Aliyev Junior does not want to stay in the shadow of his father. This situation is very similar to the relationship between Bush Junior and Bush Senior. Father took Kuwait from Saddam; the son also decided to outdo his father and invaded Iraq. He even started Afghan war to ever cross the military achievements of his father. Aliyev gets greater profits pumping out oil, but still merits attributed to his father. The only problem that remains is Karabakh — Father’s Achilles heel. It is here that Ilham Aliyev must say its hard word. That is why he wills to have not only Karabakh; he would seek to destroy all of Armenia (this is almost like Kuwait and Iraq). In the case of America the world can hope that Barack Obama will come and cut Bush Junior’s Oedipus complex. But how what to do with Azerbaijan, which has been in the grip of Oedipus triangle? The only thing that is clear, one should not drive sick senses deep into the subconscious; man with such systems might turn to paranoiac. And it’s dangerous for our people. And if we can ensure Aliyev Jr., that only in the way of wisdom, not war, he will be able to beat his father, only then people of our countries will be able to breathe openly (http://www.panarmenian.net/library/rus/?nid=179).
It is also clear that the current Azerbaijani President is not able to implement radical reforms of restructuring and modernization of Azerbaijani society. However, Ilham Aliev may have a long stay in power if he will satisfy major clans within the ruling elite of Azerbaijan and the foreign powers that have their own interests in Azerbaijan (http://www.novopol.ru/text2960.html).

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