Armenia freezes membership of CSTO – loss of trust that never existed
Armenia has announced it is freezing its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation.
The reason is obvious – the organisation’s failure to support the country in its conflict with Azerbaijan over Karabakh.
“The Collective Security Treaty has not been fulfilled in relation to Armenia, particularly in 2021-2022, which we could not help noticing,” according to Armenian President Nicol Pashinyan.
“We have frozen our participation in the treaty. Let’s see what happens in the future,” he said.
Armenia’s loss of control over Karabakh is, of course, firstly a result of its own political and military miscalculations. Its reliance on Russia was one of the biggest mistakes.
Armenia’s experience has highlighted once again that from the outset the CSTO was created around the interests of only one member – Russia.
Some may argue that the CSTO did service to Kazakhstan amid the January 2022 unrest. But the key details about the unrest and circumstances of the organisation’s brief deployment remain unclear.
Russia had no vested interests in the Karabakh conflict. It did not help, surely, that over the past ten years the Kremlin has concentrated almost all its attention and resources on Ukraine.
Azerbaijan, not tied by CSTO membership, had spent years planning and preparing to retake Karabakh, including by getting a powerful ally – Turkey. And Russia, embroiled in a standoff with the West, is not interested in picking any fights with Ankara.
For Armenia, taking a stance by at least freezing its membership of the CSTO was a question of honour.
But there are serious practical reasons too. Armenia and Azerbaijan are yet to reach a comprehensive peace deal, which will have to include agreements on border delimitation and transport links.
To strengthen its hand in that process, Armenia needs the support of some weighty powers, like Germany and France, which have already been actively involved as mediators.
On 17 February Pashinyan and Aliyev met in Munich, for the first time since the complete takeover of Karabakh by Azeri forces in September last year. The two countries’ foreign ministers are expected to meet soon to formally start peace talks.
Armenia, naturally, wants to beef up its military and strengthen its economy. Strategic partner Russia has not excelled in helping develop Armenia’s economy, apart from selling it natural gas.
Armenia also needs assistance with settling tens of thousands of Karabakh refugees.
France has already emerged as Armenia’s new chief security and military partner. Armenia has also found some new economic partners, with the UAE, according to officials, becoming its biggest investor in 2023.
It goes without saying that after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine it is harder than ever for any post-Soviet nation to see Moscow as a security partner. It is rather a security threat.
What then about the CSTO’s three Central Asian members – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan?
All factors considered, probably the answer lies in the familiar saying: “Keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer.”
The Azeri-Armenian conflict has also shown the importance of having powerful foreign partners apart from Russia.
For Central Asia, the biggest counterbalance to Russia is China.
Amid the 2022 unrest, Beijing also threw its weight behind President Tokayev. In addition, it made it clear that it wanted the CSTO deployment to be as brief as possible and expressed explicit support for Kazakhstan’s sovereignty.
Комментариев пока нет