As Russia gets poorer and more dangerous, Tajiks eye migration to US

On almost every street corner in Dushanbe there is a place where for 10 dollars you can have a form filled out for you to apply for the US Green Card migration scheme. At every such point there are long queues.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the former has become less attractive for labour migration. The pay is down, and to people’s already unfriendly attitude towards Central Asian migrants is added the risk of being sent to war.

The new most favoured destination is the USA, even if getting there is not that easy.

Businesses that offer help with applying for a Green Card mushroom in Tajikistan every October-November, when submissions open.

Shakhnozahon, a resident of the northern city of Khujand, has been applying unsuccessfully since 2006.

“You can see me getting older if you look at the photos that I provided with every new application,” she said.

But she and her two sons are trying again this year. Shakhnozahon has also helped numerous relatives, friends, colleagues and their families to fill out the forms.

“I have not been lucky, but many people I know have won. It is becoming a normal thing,” Shakhnozahon said. “I remember when one of my colleagues won in 2007 he threw a big party in a restaurant and invited 100 people. Now they just tell you in a casual way that they’ve got it and are leaving.”

According to The American Dream website, almost 18,000 Tajiks have been granted the Green Card in the past 20 years.

In the same period, the right to live in the US under the Green Card program was granted to 19,500 Kazakhs, 16,000 Kyrgyz, and almost 85,000 Uzbeks.

The Green Card allows its holder to permanently live and work in the USA. About 6m people worldwide apply for Green Cards every year, and about 1m are successful.

According to the International Migration Organisation, lower pay and the overall instability in Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, is forcing Central Asian migrants to leave Russia.

More than a half of those returning home are unable to find employment, according to the IMO.

And many of those are now trying to get to the USA. Not always legally.

“We always hear about our migrants on the Mexican border who are trying to get to the US illegally,” said Rafoat Baboyeva, who heads the Chashmai Hayot group that deals with migration issues.

She said that Tajiks started looking for ways to migrate to Western countries about 10 years ago. The trend has seriously strengthened since the Russian government’s announcement of mobilisation for the war in Ukraine last year.

Many Tajik migrants in Russia have dual citizenship. In the first half of 2023 alone, 87,000 Tajiks got Russian passports, and they are now at risk of being sent to war.

Aziza’s husband, who is a builder, worked in Russia until last year.

“In the past he thought about taking us all there, but he has changed his mind,” she said.

Now, the couple and their three young sons have applied for the Green Card.

“We want to give our children a better future. It is hard to do that in Tajikistan — even if they get education, they won’t be able to get good jobs. They will have to go to Russia, but it is not stable there now, and wages are low,” Aziza said.

Bleak economic prospects are the main driver of Tajik labour migration, but some citizens are also seeking more freedom.

Shakhnozahon said she wanted to leave because of the pressure on religion in Tajikistan, namely the unofficial campaign against the hijab.

“I have been to America and Europe a few times, and I felt absolutely comfortable wearing a hijab there, whereas in my own country I cannot visit government organisations,” she said.

By Lola Hojayeva

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