Eurasian integration – is Kazakhstan emerging as a new driving force? 

As Putin slowly got through his speech at a Eurasian Economic Union summit in St Petersburg on Monday, the other attending leaders did not even try to fake attention or interest. 

Putin tried to sound upbeat about the EAU’s ‘achievements’ and the member countries’ economies – the Russian economy grew 3 percent in 2023 and unemployment is at a record low level, he said.  

But the wording was bland and uninspiring. Putin’s voice faltered at times, losing volume and confidence – as if reflecting Russia’s declining influence in the post-Soviet space. 

However, as Russia’s leadership declines, Kazakhstan appears to be willing to take over as a new driving force behind Eurasian integration. 

Speaking in St Petersburg, President Tokayev offered a robust and pragmatic view of the EAU’s potential and ideas about what direction it should go given the global and regional circumstances. 

He said Kazakhstan sees the organisation as an economic project that could greatly benefit all its participants, providing fair and earnest cooperation among its members and their joint participation in international initiatives such as Belt and Road.   

In a nod to Russia’s policies, he said that to make the EAU work, “it is necessary to fully remove all administrative [trade] barriers in line with the spirit and letter of the agreements signed”. 

The summit ended with the adoption of a declaration outlining the EAU’s further economic development until 2030.  

It said the members aim to turn the organisation into “a self-sufficient, harmoniously developed macro-region, which is attractive to all countries of the world” by 2045.  

To achieve that, the EAU plans to create a common transport and logistics space, a common financial market, fully meet the member countries’ needs in “key goods and resources” and become an international “centre of economic gravitation”. 

On the sidelines of the summit, the EAU members also signed an agreement on free trade with Iran. On behalf of Iran, the document was signed by Industry, Mining and Trade Minister Abbas Aliabadi. 

Under the agreement, the EAU and Iran plan to abolish import customs duties on almost 90 percent of the goods traded between the bloc and Iran, according to the EAU officials. 

It means the EAU member countries will be able to import agricultural and industrial goods to Iran under “exclusive” conditions, according to the Eurasian Economic Commission Collegium chairman Mikhail Myasnikovich.  

The agreement also includes plans to launch joint infrastructure and logistics projects, with a view to developing the North-South economic belt. 

The necessary formalities needed for the free trade regime to come into force are expected to be completed “in the immediate future”, Myasnikovich said. 

Political analyst Gaziz Abishev said, commenting on the St Petersburg summit, that Tokayev’s vision for the EAU was to achieve economic cooperation at a level close to that which existed between the members in the Soviet past, provided there are some “crucial adjustments”: i.e. all the participants are treated as equal independent and sovereign nations, and cooperation between them is based on market economy rules and constructive relations with international partners. 

However, Tokayev’s plan will probably have a chance to materialise only once Putin’s regime is gone. 

• 36
• 30