“I am the State!”

Dosym Satpayev

Today exactly this slogan is used while realizing governmental program of national capitalism construction in Kazakhstan which has quite objective reasons for its fulfillment.
Continuing decline in world economical growth rates and current liquidity crisis leads to various forecasts, some consider that resulting stagnation will be much serious than those after Asian crisis in 1997-98. Others, for example, such as “Fitch Ratings” agency state that global economic growth rates will be lowest for last five years and in addition world economy will suffer hard times for the next eighteen months. Head of US Federal Reserves System Ben Bernanke accepted that there is a danger for American economy falling into recession. George Sores in his turn said that US might lose its status of economical superpower and current financial crisis is worst starting from period of Great Depression, moreover he mentioned that stock exchange markets after short term recovery will fall much more.
Simultaneously world financial crisis hits “dinosaurs” from Wall Street stronger and stronger. According to Wall Street Journal collapse of “Lehman Brothers” and restructuring of “American International Group” (AIG) and news that “Bank of America” will purchase “Merrill Lynch” could be another reason for discounts on US securities market. Of course somebody consider this as evolution when there are “winners” and “losers”. Moreover, optimists say that this is just economical cycles of rise and fall and that American economy will recover since such situations happened before. But the question is what would be the price for recovery? 
From the synergy point of view there are 12 and 15 years development cycles for different systems including economical system. However, earlier or later they fall into points of bifurcation both on the growth peak and in trough. In both cases quantitative growth could lead to qualitative changes, this is also correlated with crisis situations, which correct development of the system. Period of such correction depends on crisis depth. For present time it is very serious because we are talking about possible changes of existing economical models including in developed countries. It could mean that recovery period could last for several years. 
In the end if all these forecasts will come true then economical systems in most countries will suffer certain changes. They were correctly stated by head of IMF Strauss-Can, who considers that governmental intervention on securities, housing and banking sector markets could be “third line of protection” which will support financial – crediting and fiscal policies. 
This is what exactly is happening in Kazakhstan when government is acting as “safety pillow” for the economy. You can hear more and more often military-economical slang from top officials: “auditing captiously!”, “limiting export”, “fight with inflation”, “strengthening governmental control”, “limitation of external debts”, etc. We can observe changes in governmental policies both towards real sector and financial institutions. There is process which increases governmental participation in economy either through changes in legislation or purchase of shares. This could be well observed in energy sphere, mining industry, and already happened in informational business and soon it could transfer to financial sector, which today holds secret positioning war between bank of second layers and governmental regulators.  
All this is coming from two tendencies, first related to governmental policy to minimize negative affects from world economical instability. Second is related to changes in investment rules, actually both of these tendencies are interrelated and come from each other.
In the case when there is an increase in governmental expenditures for support of internal crediting government of Kazakhstan is searching for new sources of budgetary income, mainly an increase comes from extracting companies. Governmental bodies consider that it would be possible with introduction of tax code, which will tax extraction of natural resources rather than have rent payments. Ministry of finance considers that such system will give the budget stable income from natural resources that in fact should belong to the government. Additional mechanism would be increase in export duty for extracting companies, and increase of companies’ expenditures on social projects which government cannot finance independently. Moreover, increase in ecological fees and penalties will only continue. That is way governmental initiatives for changes in Tax Code and introduction of Tax for extracted natural resources (TENR) is part of approved by President program for increasing governmental participation in all strategically important sectors of economy. For this reason new tax code is only one of the instruments for realization of this policy, this is true not only in oil and gas sphere but in mining as well, because it is considered that TENR and export duties will be established for mining industry also.    
For now major lobbying group of new tax code is government of Kazakhstan in the face of ministry of finance. Government considers that price paid for political risks in 1990s to oil investors is too high. RK Prime-minister already several times underlined that fulfillment of the contract by natural resource extractors are not satisfactory. First of all we are talking about delays in start for deposit exploitation, increase in production costs. So government of Kazakhstan ground their decision of introducing new tax code as responsive actions of the government for companies’ violation of contract provisions. These violations took place in tax payments as well.
We have to consider that initially “Samruk” holding which lobbies interests of “KazMunaiGaz” was against introduction of new tax burdens. This is not surprising because on the first step new tax burdens are distributed among local companies as well, including both TENR and export duties including KMG. However, today “KazMunaiGaz” already changed its behavior because it cannot force the government to change their decision. Today KMG actively convinces government to widen lists of companies falling into TENR and payments of customs duties through participants of ASP.  
The problem is that public opinion supports government of Kazakhstan in this issue including NGOs and mass media. Partly this is true because of conflicts that occurred in Kashagan and Tengiz when major investors have been blamed of contract provisions violations which created good informational background for acceptance of new tax code. In such conditions foreign companies have limited instruments for influencing on current situation especially taking into consideration that they have to fight with direct governmental policy which has public support.   
Making historical parallels it must be stated that period of New Economic Policy ended in Kazakhstan. Governmental paternalism steadily moves from politics to economics. On the base of corruption scandals, underclaimed budgets, inter agencies conflicts, ineffective fight with inflation, we must ask ourselves whether government would act as good manager for market processes.

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