From the Year of Elections to the Year of Governance

With half of the global population having already voted or preparing to do so in 2024, the “year of elections” has had a profound impact on democracies worldwide. Now, as the year enters its final quarter, it is becoming increasingly apparent that 2025 will be an equally transformative “year of governance.”

The 2024 election cycle has already led to significant political shifts. In Poland, record turnout among women and young voters in last year’s general election handed a victory to a united coalition of pro-democracy parties, which also won the European elections in June. The same month, India’s general election resulted in another win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, but the BJP lost its parliamentary majority, owing to regional movements and social-justice campaigns that enabled opposition parties to make significant gains. And in Senegal, mass protests forced former President Macky Sall to abandon his efforts to extend his term by postponing the election. Just weeks later, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a former tax inspector running on an anti-corruption platform, won decisively.

While the challenges ahead may seem daunting, these victories offer glimmers of hope, underscoring the resilience of democratic systems. But as the world shifts from the electoral frenzy of 2024 to the practical realities of governing, newly elected reformist leaders will face the difficult task of making good on their campaign promises.

This is no easy feat, even in well-established democracies. Countries emerging from autocratic rule face even greater challenges, as new governments must dismantle entrenched networks of former regime loyalists who may act as spoilers and try to block any reform that threatens their interests.

Recent political transitions offer important lessons for newly elected reformist leaders as they confront what we call the “five Ds”: democratic (re)construction, debunking propaganda, discord, debt, and disasters.

First, to prevent democratic backsliding, newly elected reformers must strengthen core democratic institutions like the legislature, the judiciary, and independent government agencies. Above all, they need to protect these bodies from the influence of illiberal forces, both foreign and domestic.

In extreme cases, sweeping reforms are necessary to root out entrenched corruption and restore integrity to public administration. Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity is a prime example. After ousting Viktor Yanukovych’s kleptocratic regime, the new government – in cooperation with civil-society groups – initiated a series of anti-corruption measures. These included vetting the judiciary, strengthening accountability mechanisms, and introducing transparency tools like open-access databases to enable ordinary citizens to track corporate ownership structures and the allocation of state resources.

Second, reformist leaders must confront sophisticated information operations aimed at undermining their legitimacy. Taiwan, for example, has faced relentless efforts by China to destabilize its democratic process through false narratives. In Moldova, President Maia Sandu has had to fend off a barrage of pro-Russian propaganda and cyberattacks from the Kremlin and domestic pro-Russian factions.

Third, reformist governments often inherit countries plagued by deep social and political divisions. Addressing these lingering conflicts is critical for new leaders. In Guatemala, for example, President Bernardo Arévalo has engaged in dialogue with Indigenous communities, acknowledging the centuries of violence and exclusion they have endured while making a genuine effort to respond to their needs.

Fourth, debt distress can severely impede a new government’s ability to implement essential economic and social programs. When Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema took office in 2021, he discovered that his predecessors had taken on enormous, undisclosed loans, especially from China. Zambia’s crushing debt burden has forced the government to spend more on servicing loans than it does on health, education, and sanitation combined. Meanwhile, the process of restructuring these debts has dragged on for more than three years.

Kenya offers another stark example of the powerful destabilizing role debt can play. Earlier this year, President William Ruto was forced to withdraw a controversial finance bill aimed at reducing the country’s $80 billion debt after a wave of protests against its austerity provisions left dozens dead.

Lastly, with global temperatures rising at an alarming rate, climate-related disasters are becoming increasingly frequent. Experts warn that children born today will experience a sevenfold increase in extreme-weather events compared to their grandparents. Incoming leaders must establish robust systems that enable quick and effective responses to crises while upholding democratic principles such as transparency, accountability, and inclusion. This is particularly urgent in climate-vulnerable countries like Malawi, where devastating floods and droughts have led to crop failures and acute levels of food insecurity.

Amid economic and geopolitical turmoil, the stakes could not be higher. Newly elected reformist leaders must deliver on their promises to improve living standards while protecting democracy. Failure risks pushing voters toward populist leaders and exposing their countries to domestic or foreign manipulation. But if they succeed, the coming “year of governance” could be a turning point, ushering in an era of democratic renewal.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syndicate.org

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