Central Asian regimes in 2023: from strengthening to stagnation

The year 2023 saw the strengthening of the current Kazakh and Uzbek regimes. But the political stagnation in Tajikistan and changing power balance in Kyrgyzstan raise questions about the two countries’ stability in the next year or two.   

The internal politics in Kazakhstan continued to be defined by the deadly unrest of January 2022.

The process of dismantling the oligopoly created around former President Nursultan Nazarbayev went on, albeit in a face-saving fashion, i.e. mainly as a result of private negotiations on ‘returning’ various economic assets.

There were some exceptions — so there is something to demonstrate to the public — like the jailing of Nazarbayev’s nephew Kayrat Satybaldy.

The government remained unwilling to allow any thorough, independent investigations into the killings of civilians during the January violence.

In November a court in Astana sentenced opposition activist Marat Zhylanbayev to seven years in jail for alleged extremism. Zhylanbayev, among other things, was persistently calling on the authorities to conduct an open investigation into the January 2022 events.

Former president Nazarbayev, who has lost almost all his titles and legal privileges, published an autobiography – in a last-ditch and unconvincing bid to leave his own account of his presidency.

The book skirted ‘the darkest’ chapters of Nazarbayev’s rule, like the killings of his two weightiest political opponents, Zamanbek Nurkadilov and Altynbek Sarsenbayev.

Instead, Nazarbayev ‘unburdened’ himself about having an unofficial third wife, who gave him his only two sons.

President Tokayev, meanwhile, appeared to be more focused on international diplomacy, particularly with and around Russia, having had more meetings with Putin than any other foreign leader, except Belarus’s Aleksandr Lukashenko.

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev made sure, through constitutional changes, that he can stay in power till 2037. 

Having done that, the Uzbek government launched a crackdown on popular independent bloggers, who were until then allowed to exist as a sign of some political relaxation since Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016.

Towards the end of the year, Mirziyoyev’s government also took on organised crime, arresting a few crime bosses, whose names have been known to almost every Uzbek since the 1990s. Among them was Salim Abduvaliev, a mafia boss with close connections to top officials.

The move could be part of Mirziyoyev’s efforts to redistribute economic assets and further strengthen his power base.  

Kyrgyzstan saw the growing influence of Security Chief Kamchybek Tashiyev amid persistent rumours he might be preparing to unseat President Sadyr Japarov.

Tashiyev has spent 2bn dollars, in his own words, to significantly beef up the security service and expand its presence across the country.

In a special operation in October, the Kyrgyz security service killed the country’s most powerful crime boss Kamchy Kolbayev, following that up with a wide clampdown on organised crime. Kolbayev was known to have helped Japarov and Tashiyev to rise to power amid the post-election protests in 2020.

Tashiyev is also seen as the figure behind the intensifying crackdown on independent Kyrgyz media and civil activists.

Whether there is a power struggle between the two, in coordination with Japarov, or alone, Tashiyev seems to be doing everything not to repeat the ‘mistakes’ of previous governments, which allowed themselves to be toppled by opposition groups taking advantage of public protests and using the help of organised criminal groups.

While Tashiyev was busy with all that, President Japarov decided to “straighten” the sun rays on the national flag. Japarov said the old “wavy” rays were making the sun look like a sunflower, which was preventing the country from becoming truly independent and prosperous.

In terms of internal politics, Tajikistan remained in a state of tense suspense awaiting an imminent transition from ailing President Emomali Rahmon to his son Rustam Emomali. Whether the transition will go smoothly or not remains to be seen.

Turkmenistan remained trapped in Berdimukhamedov father and son’s fantasy world of absolute power and luxury.  

In the coming days Exclusive.kz will look at how Central Asia has been affected by the relevant international events of 2023.

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