Is Kyrgyz President Japarov losing his grip on power? 

Once close political allies, the Kyrgyz president and security chief may now be locked in a power struggle, observers say. 

The killing of the country’s most powerful crime boss earlier this month could mean that Security Chief Kamchybek Tashiyev is getting the upper hand over President Sadyr Japarov. 

Japarov and Tashiyev rose to power following the October 2020 protests over disputed parliamentary elections. There was a third important figure behind their success – crime baron Kamchy Kolbayev, who unleashed armed mobs to intimidate the duo’s rivals.

It is believed it was Kolbayev’s “men” who fired on the vehicle of former President Almazbek Atambayev, who was also trying to use the post-election turmoil to return to power. 

Effectively, since the 2020 government overthrow, Kyrgyzstan’s power balance rested on the Japarov-Tashiyev-Kolbayev triumvirate.

Kolbayev had been given a free rein regarding his ‘business’ activities, and he had placed his people in various government bodies and parliament, Kyrgyz activists say. 

On 4 October, Kolbayev was killed by the security service in a special operation.  

It took President Japarov 12 days to comment.  

When he finally broke his silence, Japarov said he knew about the special security service operation against Kolbayev “like everyone else, from the internet”.  

Japarov told the official Kabar news agency that he had ordered the Military Prosecutor’s Office “to investigate the legality of the operation”.  

By contrast, after Kolbayev’s killing the security service promptly issued a lengthy statement, accusing the crime boss of using his criminal resources to influence “political processes in the country”.  

The service has since been providing daily updates on the ongoing crackdown on persons and businesses linked to the dead crime boss. Reports about the crackdown have been regularly posted on Tashiyev’s official Facebook account. 

An independent Kyrgyz journalist told Exclusive.kz on condition of anonymity that “it has been persistently rumoured recently that things are not going well between the two friends” – Japarov and Tashiyev. 

“It is said that Tashiyev has been working to oust Sadyr Japarov,” the journalist said. 

Judging by Japarov’s 12-day silence on Kolbayev’s murder, “it came to him as a surprise”. “If we assume that a weak Japarov needed Kolbayev’s influence to maintain balance in relations with the more assertive Tashiyev, that balance has now been broken. Kyrgyzstan might soon see another change of power,” the journalist said.

Nikita Mendikovich, head of Russia’s pro-government Eurasian Analytical Club, wrote on his Telegram channel on 13 October that President Japarov was now “a lame duck”.

He said that after Kolbayev’s murder Japarov would be “swiftly losing political influence and might step down early”. 

He said Tashiyev would be, on the contrary, “gaining power”, and “the chance to become the next president”. 

In another post on 15 October, Mendikovich said that Moscow had expected “a transition of power”, presumably from Japarov to Tashiyev, from “the outset”. 

“The disproportionate strengthening of the powers of the country’s No 2 figure [Tashiyev] [after Kolbayev’s removal] is clearly bringing [a transition of power] closer,” Mendikovich said. 

Mendikovich was part of the official Russian delegation during President Putin’s visit to Bishkek last week. Customarily, he must have had a few private chats with senior Kyrgyz politicians. 

Observers note that the Tashiyev-controlled media have been intensively promoting him in recent months. 

Pressure on independent media and activists has increased under Japarov. If Tashiyev takes over, he is expected to tighten control still more.

Note: Tashiyev, 55, has long been on Kyrgyzstan’s political scene — in and out of parliament, and jail for assault or illegal protests. In 2011 he ran for president and gained over 14 percent of the vote. Tashiyev planned another presidential bid in 2017, but withdrew in favour of the eventual winner Sooronbay Jeenbekov, whom he and Japarov would oust in 2020. 

Japarov, 54, is a former anti-corruption chief and an MP. In 2017 he was sentenced to 11 years in prison for kidnapping. He was freed from jail amid the October 2020 protests.  

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