Kazakhs show more confidence about national economy, personal welfare

Consumer confidence went up in Kazakhstan in November, with citizens saying both the national economy and their personal welfare have improved in the past 12 months, according to research by Freedom Finance Global.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached 108.2 points in the said month, after growing consecutively for two months, compared to 101.2 at the same time last year.

Almost 23 percent of Kazakh citizens polled in November believed the national economy had improved over the past year (18 percent thought so in September).

The Kazakh-speaking population showed more positivity (33 percent saw economic improvement) than Russian-speaking citizens (15 percent).

When broken down by age groups, the most positive outlook was among those under 29 (33 percent), and the most negative among those aged 45-49 years (15 percent).

The most ‘positive’ region was Kyzylorda (36 percent of those surveyed seeing changes for the better), and another two southern regions, Turkestan and Jetysu.

The most pessimistic regions are West Kazakhstan and Karaganda, with about 51 percent of those polled there being negative about the state of the country’s economy.

In citizens’ assessment of their personal economic situation, overall, there has been a 6.1-point rise over the past 12 months, with 37.9 percent saying they are better off now.

Again, Kazakh speakers were more upbeat (49 percent) than Russian-speaking citizens (30 percent).

The inflation rate has been slowing down in Kazakhstan since March, reaching 10.3 percent in November.

However, in November more people than in October expected a rise in consumer prices in the coming months (30.2 against 24.6 respectively). Of those polled, 27.3 percent expected a significant rise in prices in the next 12 months (up by 3 percent on October).

Despite the tenge strengthening in November by 2 percent, 55.4 percent of citizens expect it to weaken against the dollar in a year’s time; 36.1 percent think it will weaken within a month (against 53.9 and 34.4 respectively in October).

The credit confidence index grew in November by 1.3 points on the previous month, with the share of citizens saying that it is a good time for taking a loan increasing from 14.8 to 16.6 percent.

Those who described the current period as ‘calm’, as opposed to ‘worrying’, made up 57.3 percent of the polled — in October they made up 56.3 percent.

About 40 percent of citizens expect a rise in unemployment – the figure remained almost unchanged for the past six months but was slightly higher than a year ago (38.3 percent).

Looking at neighbours, in Uzbekistan consumer confidence decreased in November – for the first time in five months, with Uzbeks becoming less positive about their personal and national economic situation and expectations about the future. However, overall consumer confidence among Uzbeks is higher than among Kazakhs.

In Kyrgyzstan, consumer confidence improved in November, mainly because of increased expectations.

It was Freedom Finance Global’s fifth survey of consumer confidence in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The overall CCI index was in the positive zone in all four countries, for a second consecutive month, which is a positive sign for governments and business.

On the other hand, despite falling inflation in the entire region, citizens in all four countries are concerned about a rise in prices in the future.

By Daniyar Orazbayev, analyst with Freedom Finance Global

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