Ten years on, has Belt and Road been good for Kazakhstan?

Tokayev’s proposals at the latest Belt and Road Forum in Beijing centred around the idea of turning Kazakhstan into a global transportation hub.

Tokayev proposed creation of a network of logistics hubs in Kazakhstan, and showed the country’s interest in setting up shipping container joint ventures and becoming a hub for the world’s biggest airlines.

Admittedly, President Tokayev’s ambition cannot materialise, and would be even unthinkable, without China’s Belt and Road initiative.

In the ten years since its launch, Belt and Road has attracted 152 countries, launched over 3,000 projects and created 420,000 jobs, making a tangible economic impact in some poor countries.

From 2013, when Kazakhstan joined China’s Belt and Road, till 2020 China invested about 18.5bn dollars in our country, including 3.8bn in the transport sector, according to the official figures.

Kazakh railway shipments as part of the Transcaspian international route rose by 1.1m tonnes, to 9.4m tonnes, in 2022. Transit shipments from China by road doubled, reaching 980,000 tonnes.

Various industrial projects worth more than 21bn dollars are being implemented in Kazakhstan as part of the Belt and Road program.

According to the World Bank, at the current rate of expansion, the Belt and Road project could increase Kazakhstan’s GDP by 21 percent.

Development and optimisation of Kazakhstan’s transport and logistics infrastructure and control of Eurasia’s important transit routes could significantly increase the country’s geopolitical weight, turning it into an influential regional player.

However, the opportunity comes with certain challenges.

Realization of complex, large-scale infrastructure projects in Kazakhstan could be hindered by the lack of transparency and efficient regulation in the lucrative transport sector. There are also environmental considerations.

We could end up with serious financial obligations to China and with an economy seriously dependent on China, which could stoke Sinophobia.  

The Kazakh government must think strategically about our involvement in Belt and Road and work on alternative trade and transport projects.

We need to increase transparency in the infrastructure sector, to ensure public support for Chinese investment.

Kazakhstan must use its geography. But with vigilance and foresight.

Overall, Central Asia’s cooperation with China must be built on trust and fairness.

By political analyst Nazerke Erkinkyzy

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