The threat Trump poses to the climate should not be underestimated

Last week, the World Leaders Climate Action Summit took place within the framework of the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. But the gathering attracted less fanfare than it has in the past – a change that does not bode well for our collective future.

One reason for the reduced attention to COP29 is the watered-down attendance list: the leaders of the world’s 13 highest-emission countries have decided to skip the event altogether, partly because a G20 summit was scheduled at the same time. The heads of major financial institutions, including Bank of America and BlackRock, have also stayed away from this year’s conference, despite its focus on finance. And the decision to hold the event in Azerbaijan – a country heavily reliant on natural gas – has elicited accusations of “greenwashing” by environmental activists. As with last year’s COP in Dubai, the choice of host highlights the need to come to terms with natural gas as a long-term energy source.

More broadly, the world has a lot on its mind. As the Ukraine war approaches its fourth year, a Russian counteroffensive to retake land in the Kursk region – supported by more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers – appears to be imminent. Meanwhile, Israel is fighting on two fronts, in Gaza and Lebanon, and escalation into a wider war appears far more likely than de-escalation. And while it is impossible to predict exactly what the capricious Donald Trump will do once he returns to the White House, the risks of geopolitical instability, democratic erosion, and a sharp reversal on climate policy loom large.

A longtime climate-change denier and proponent of the “drill, baby, drill” mantra, Trump has pledged to withdraw the United States from the “horrendously unfair” Paris climate agreement, as he did during his first term in office. According to some reports, an executive order to begin this process has already been drafted.

Trump also plans to increase US gas production and exports, and terminate the Green New Deal – which he calls the “Green New Scam” – by rescinding all unspent funds under the “misnamed” Inflation Reduction Act. Recent remarks by Myron Ebell, who helped lead a transition team during Trump’s previous administration, are ominous: “We’re not going to worry about emissions anymore,” he declared bluntly. The “sooner you forget all this stuff about reducing emissions, the better.”

While one should not underestimate the threat that Trump poses to the climate, there is reason to hope that the worst-case scenarios will not materialize. During his first term, Trump’s bombastic declarations were not always followed by the promised action. Moreover, states, cities, organizations, and individuals stepped up to protect the climate, partly offsetting the federal government’s failures.

In any case, the scale of the Trump shock to the environment will become apparent only after he takes office in January. COP29 is happening now, and its objectives cannot wait.

Dubbed the “finance COP,” the gathering in Baku is supposed to address the vast climate-finance gap faced by developing countries. The much-touted $100 billion annual target – which developed economies agreed in 2009 that they would meet by 2020 – was reached for the first time just two years ago. The delay notwithstanding, it is nowhere near enough: the annual financing needs of emerging and developing economies (excluding China) are expected to reach about $2.4 trillion by 2030.

Against this backdrop, participants at COP29 are attempting to negotiate a New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance. One hopes that the figure ultimately adopted is ambitious. But whatever it is, it will almost certainly fall short of developing countries’ needs. Moreover, implementation will pose a major challenge, as it will have to be handled largely by the private sector, especially private financial institutions.

In many countries, particularly in Africa, the clean-energy transition is complicated by a lack of access to electricity. The strong correlation between consistent baseload power and economic prosperity sends a clear message: a reliable, affordable power supply is essential to development. And yet 570 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access – 80% of the global total – and the number has grown since 2021.

Rapid population growth in the Global South is set to exacerbate the problem. Africa alone is expected to be home to 2.5 billion people in 2050 – up from 1.5 billion today. Renewable-energy sources are simply not reliable enough to meet the mushrooming demand that this implies. Hydrogen and nuclear can help to fill the gaps, but both require huge upfront infrastructure investments, which public budgets cannot cover.

Mobilizing private capital is thus crucial. To this end, governments must devise effective strategies to mitigate risk and foster a supportive investment environment. Strategic partnerships among governments, international financial institutions (IFIs), and the private sector will be crucial.

While many IFIs are still in the early stages of developing their green industrial strategies, they must play a central role in catalyzing private-sector investment and smoothing the clean-energy transition in emerging and developing economies. This includes helping to de-risk investments for first movers and supporting governments in setting ambitious goals, defining pathways to achieve them, and establishing policy frameworks and standards.

The Baku Initiative for Climate Finance, Investment, and Trade is a step in the right direction, as it aims to encourage the creation of national, regional, and sub-regional platforms to maximize all three. But, without global buy-in, the impact of such initiatives will be limited.

Even at a time of growing geopolitical disruption, we cannot allow ourselves to be distracted from the imperative of tackling climate change. There is no excuse for letting COP29 conclude without delivering ambitious, credible financing commitments.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syndicate.org

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