A blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Party

To the surprise of many observers, Turkey’s opposition won big in local elections, a result that is certain to reshape the country’s domestic political dynamics. The center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) captured 37.8% of the national vote, dealing a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which received 35.5%. More importantly, CHP mayors will now govern 35 of Turkey’s 81 provinces – including its ten largest metropolitan areas – with a total population of 53 million. By contrast, the AKP won only 24 provinces, representing 19.5 million people.

Turkey’s ongoing economic malaise was a key factor in the CHP’s stunning result. Erdoğan and the AKP are finally experiencing the political consequences of ill-considered macroeconomic policies that fueled inflation and pummeled the lira, eroding the purchasing power of the majority of Turks. This has been most visible in Turkey’s metropolitan areas, where workers are more exposed to the business cycle. Anger over the deep economic slump drove down turnout among AKP voters.

Equally important for the future of Turkish democracy is the emergence of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the CHP mayor of Istanbul, as the natural leader of Turkey’s political opposition. He was handily re-elected with 51% of the vote, beating Murat Kurum, the AKP candidate, by a margin of 12 percentage points. This is all the more impressive given that Kurum’s campaign benefited from Erdoğan’s personal involvement, skewed media coverage, and other government advantages.

In fact, this is İmamoğlu’s third victory over the ruling AKP (and, by extension, Erdoğan): five years ago, he eked out a victory in the Istanbul mayoral election, beating former AKP Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım by 13,000 votes. Erdoğan’s government refused to recognize the result and, citing “irregularities,” forced a rerun of the contest, which İmamoğlu won by around 800,000 votes. İmamoğlu’s win on Sunday should therefore be interpreted as the last round of the 2019 local elections and the first round of the 2028 presidential election.

In the short term, the election’s outcome will likely prevent the AKP from attempting to amend Turkey’s constitution a second time in order to extend Erdoğan’s mandate beyond 2028. The AKP’s newly diminished political stature has undermined the legitimacy of such an initiative. Amid dwindling chances of constitutional change, the question of political succession becomes more pressing. If Erdoğan is actually serving his last term as president – a legitimate possibility judging from his recent comments – who will pick up his political mantle?

Moreover, the AKP’s resounding defeat casts a shadow on the future of the country’s year-old economic adjustment program. Many AKP members will blame the return to economic orthodoxy after the May 2023 presidential election for the party’s severe electoral setback. The economic slowdown triggered by massive interest-rate hikes and conservative fiscal policy almost surely contributed to AKP voters’ disenchantment. But this bitter pill remains indispensable, and must be administered for at least another 12-18 months. To that end, the AKP must continue to shore up political support within the party ranks for this painful adjustment.

After falling short in last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, the broad opposition alliance that backed then-CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in his run against Erdoğan splintered, and each party fielded its own candidate in Sunday’s local elections. Such a full field raised the stakes for incumbent mayors in opposition-controlled areas. But many of them overcame this hurdle by appealing directly to all segments of the opposition electorate in their constituencies. Based on their impressive tallies, İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, the incumbent CHP mayor of Ankara, the capital, clearly attracted voters from outside their party. This puts the opposition – especially the CHP, which is being steered largely by İmamoğlu and chairman Özgür Özel – in a more comfortable position leading up to the 2028 presidential election.

Ultimately, Turkish democracy may be the real winner of Sunday’s vote. The Turkish electorate once again demonstrated its deep attachment to multiparty democracy and its belief in the prospect of democratic change. Over the last decade, the country has undoubtedly experienced a significant degree of backsliding under Erdoğan’s authoritarian grip. But on Sunday, Turks showed why the Turkish Republic, having entered its second century, is firmly anchored in the democratic world.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syndicate.org

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