Europe has no choice but to take its fate into its own hands

Whenever Europeans return from their summer holidays, calls for a structural overhaul of the European Union are practically inevitable. This year will be no different, though the impetus for change may be more powerful than ever.

The EU is facing numerous daunting – even existential – challenges. War rages on its doorstep, economic competitiveness lags, and deep social polarization persists. Political uncertainty in France and indecision in Germany compound the EU’s fragility, precisely when an unpredictable leadership transition in the United States, which threatens to usher in a prolonged period of American isolationism, leaves Europe with little choice but to take its fate into its own hands.

The EU has managed to overcome severe disruptions in recent years, from sovereign-debt crises to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom. But, in today’s geopolitical environment, it is weak, vulnerable, and ill-prepared to handle the challenges it faces. The enduring influence of populist forces – which weaponize concerns over illegal migration and openly defy European unity – is a major reason why.

For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has led Hungary’s government since 2010 (after previously holding office from 1998-2002), has seemingly made it his mission to erode the rule of law in Hungary and across the EU, while undermining European cohesion. And last month, his government assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU.

Within days, Orbán carried out surprise visits to Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing, to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal – a clear bid both to exploit the EU’s institutional apparatus and to undermine it strategically. He also attended – again, with no coordination or warning – the summit of the Organization of Turkic States, which includes as an “observer” the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

EU leaders scrambled to clarify that Orbán had no mandate to represent the Union externally, let alone to negotiate any kind of Ukraine peace deal. To highlight that Orbán was acting out of turn, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, Josep Borrell, stripped Hungary of the right to host the next meeting of foreign and defense ministers – normally the job of the Council of the EU president.

Unfazed, Orbán proceeded to announce a new fast-track visa system that would enable citizens of eight countries, including Russia and Belarus, to enter Hungary without security checks, raising fears about the integrity of the Schengen Area of border-free travel and EU security more broadly. Orbán has also sought, together with his counterparts in Slovakia, to use EU levers to force Ukraine to end its ban on the transit of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline that runs through its territory. Most recently, Hungary blocked a joint EU statement on the “irregularities” of the presidential elections in Venezuela, prompting Borrell to issue a separate statement.

EU leaders can do all the damage control they want, but Orbán is achieving his goal of making the Union appear confused, discordant, and weak. Having internalized key lessons of the Soviet era, he knows that empires and institutions begin to falter once they become objects of ridicule.

This has contributed to the growing impression that in a world increasingly defined by geopolitical power plays and realpolitik,the EU’s moral authority and commitment to values-based governance are quaint and ineffective – relics of the past. A lack of visionary leadership and cohesion among key members have only compounded the problem.

Not only has the once-powerful Franco-German engine of European integration run out of steam; European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s new mandate – which she secured by crafting an ambiguous platform that sought to appeal to a broad spectrum of interests – seems unlikely to bring profound change. Against this backdrop, forging a coherent vision on critical issues like competitiveness, innovation, and defense will prove difficult, at best. Those who stand to gain the most from this situation are spoilers, such as Orbán, who have learned how to exploit disunity and ambiguity.

During past crises – from the Brexit negotiations to the EU’s previous dealings with Hungary over Orbán’s assaults on democracy and the rule of law – the EU has relied largely on a legalistic and technocratic approach, which has often left it worse off. But calls for the EU to start speaking the “language of power” have remained unheeded. And while proposals for strengthening the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy’s mandate have been advanced, they represent little more than cosmetic changes.

To regain its footing, the EU must act with urgency and resolve, even if that entails uncomfortable confrontations with member states. And to thrive in the world of today and tomorrow, it must, once again, establish itself as an indispensable partner for the US.

This means strengthening its economy, not least through innovation. It also means heeding former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s advice to engage more effectively with younger generations of Americans. Bolstering the image of the EU, which often is viewed more negatively than individual member states, is essential.

With US President Joe Biden now a lame duck, Ukraine and Europe have entered a period of elevated vulnerability. Russia’s hybrid attacks could escalate in the coming months, posing a significant challenge for the EU, especially with Orbán at the helm of the Council. If the upcoming US presidential election brings Donald Trump back to the White House, pressure for a “negotiated peace” in Ukraine could intensify, further disrupting an already fragile geopolitical landscape.

The EU faces a stark choice: it can either continue to allow internal and external forces to weaken it, or it can act boldly to reclaim its integrity and strengthen its influence. From encouraging innovation and bolstering the rule of law to establishing and implementing a shared foreign-policy vision, the EU must demonstrate that it can be both principled and powerful, or risk being left behind.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syndicate.org

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