Expert: Fewer Tajiks join terrorist groups, but risks remain

The 3 January suicide bombing in Iran’s Kerman was carried out by two Tajik citizens, Iranian authorities said. Responsibility for the attack that killed 89 people was claimed by the Islamic State.

In December four Tajiks were arrested in Germany on suspicion of plotting a series of terrorist attacks over the Christmas period, according to German authorities. All four were said to be members of the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), an IS offshoot in Afghanistan.

A few more Tajiks were arrested earlier in 2023 in Germany and the Netherlands on suspicion of involvement in terrorist activities.

Tajik anti-extremism expert Rustam Azizi has denied that the reports mean that there has been a rise in the number of Tajiks joining terrorist groups.

In an interview with Asia-Plus news agency, Azizi said that Tajikistan had never been among “the leaders” in terms of providing members for terrorist groups, and there had been almost no Tajiks among IS commanders.

“The figures do not show mass joining of radical groups [by Tajiks]. There is no mass immigration to the countries where there are active terrorist groups,” Azizi said.

However, he added that as Persian speakers Tajiks can easily blend in in Iran and Afghanistan and can be used there “for specific tasks” – “those who speak other languages can be exposed already at the preparation stage”.

Asked about the Jamaat Ansarullah group, which is based in Afghanistan and is comprised of Tajiks, Azizi said it was “quite a modest and small organisation, numbering at most about 150 people”.

He said the group, “an Al-Qaeda branch affiliated with the Taliban”, does not represent “a serious danger, especially since the recent ‘mysterious’ disappearance of its leader Mahdi Arslan”, and the “absence of active recruitment”.

Azizi also said Tajiks had become less vulnerable to falling for militant propaganda because of increased awareness about terrorism. However, he said, risks remained.

While the main Islamic State group has cut back its activities, the Islamic State-Khorasan is “intensively recruiting Tajiks and other Central Asians”.

“Islamic State-Khorasan represents a greater threat to us because its focus is more regional, rather than global.

“It means that they are not in the focus of international actors, i.e. they won’t be bombed, like [militant groups] in Syria. Therefore, Islamic State-Khorasan has better survival chances and it can threaten regional security,” he said.

Another negative factor is “the new circumstances in the Russian labour market, such as deportations of some migrants and difficulties with employment, which make [Tajik labour migrants in Russia] more vulnerable to propaganda and recruitment,” Azizi said.

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