Pundit: Turkic world’s ability to unite depends on outcome of Ukraine war 

The outcome of Russia’s war on Ukraine will have a serious impact on the Turkic nations’ ability to create a viable political alliance, according to Azeri political expert Agil Rustamzade. 

He said Russia had been “the main force” opposing the emergence of a united Turkic world since dividing it, “with Europe’s help”, in the 17-18th centuries. 

In what shape Russia comes out of its military campaign against Ukraine will influence the Turkic nations’ chances of creating “a real political, military and economic Turkic bloc”, Rustamzade told the Kazakh KSAP analytical centre in an interview. 

Rustamzade said the further development of the Russian-Ukrainian war depended on how much armament Ukraine could get from the West, and on the outcome of the US presidential election later this year.  

He said even with the current limited Western military supplies, Ukraine could hold its defence lines.  

Ukraine’s new chief military commander Oleksandr Syrsky’s team has first-hand battlefield experience and “knows what’s best for the front — they know the best way to fight this war”. 

In addition, Rustamzade said, modern warfare was undergoing “a revolution” – “the 2024 war is fundamentally different from the war we saw in 2022”.  

“Because of the tactical and technological changes by the end of 2024 we are going to see a completely different war,” he said. 

In a scenario involving “fully-fledged” Western support, however, Ukraine could be able “to deal a tangible military and economic blow” to Russia by the end of 2024, according to Rustamzade. 

“It could force the Russian leadership to review its position about this war. The cost of war might become insurmountable,” he said. 

How the war ends would be decided in 2025, after the US presidential election, he said further.  

If Biden wins a second term, he might, “depending on the situation”, either “shower” Ukraine with weapons, or try to lay the ground for talks with Russia, Rustamzade said. 

He also noted that China’s support for Russia’s war was overestimated.  

Russia’s main military supporters were North Korea and Iran, he said.

China is an ally but it does not supply weapons. He said India’s support was bigger because it was buying “huge amounts” of Russian oil. 

“China is behaving like a sensible and responsible superpower,” Rustamzade said.   

He also praised Kazakhstan’s “balanced” multi-vector foreign policy, saying it was helping the country to navigate the risks arising from the current “geopolitical chaos”. 

For any post-Soviet country, except the Baltics, any “abrupt” moves that Russia might see as threatening its interests were fraught with serious consequences, he said. 

Rustamzade added that Kazakhstan was currently facing no serious threats, but if it got more assertive in “raising its defence capability”, “you might see outbreaks of separatism”. 

He said that in the entire post-Soviet space there were still many people linked to Russia – “who see Russia not as a neighbouring country, but their own”. 

“They are capable of rocking the boat to one or another degree,” he said.  

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